Determining the Time series prediction

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Lilya
Lilya 2015-12-8
评论： Greg Heath 2016-1-4
Hi all, according to simpleseries_dataset code in neural network there is a difference between it and NAREXNET. Is it in the coding or in the implementation of the function itself?
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Greg Heath
Greg Heath 2015-12-16
The maximum lag from both ID and FD.
Lilya
Lilya 2015-12-16
I got them from your answers I'm really thank you so much

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Greg Heath
Greg Heath 2015-12-13
GOOD QUESTION!
My answer is TRIAL and ERROR
The advice I usually give for starting the process is
1) Use divideblock datadivision.
2) First use the default 0.7/0.15/0.15
3) Use the training data to estimate the
a. significant target autocorrelation lags
b. significant input-target crosscorrelation lags
4) Use 2, 3 and corresponding plots for lags 0 to
Ntrn/2 to guide a choice for ID and FD.
5) Determine the minimum number of hidden nodes for a
specified (degree-of-freedom adjusted) training error rate
e.g., NMSEtrna < 0.005 )
6) If successful try decreasing Ntrn
7) Using the smallest acceptable Ntrn for the openloop configuration, close the loop
and investigate the closeloop configuration.
Hope this helps.
Greg
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Lilya
Lilya 2015-12-13
Excuse me Dr I have another question Is it important to shuffling Inputs?
The final plot and performance are different when I shuffle data
Greg Heath
Greg Heath 2016-1-4
Recommendation #1 for TIMESERIES DATA is to use DIVIDEBLOCK in order TO NOT SHUFFLE THE DATA!

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