If I am not wrong, you are doing this:
% tau = -1./p(1)
% Temp0 = exp(p(2))
% Temp_t = Temp0*exp(-(tm-t0)/tau); % ->
% Temp_t = exp(p(2))*exp((tm-t0)*p(1)); % ->
Temp_t = exp( p(2)+(tm-t0)*p(1) );
Instead, I think you should just grab your Temp amd time data in your region of interest (1.7 to 2.3) taking care on grabbing an Temp/time array with the same length than your tp array. Then:
p = polyfit(time, Temp, 1);
Temp_p = p(1)*tp + p(2);
plot(time, Temp, tp, Temp_t)