Minimize the sum of squared errors between the experimental and predicted data in order to estimate two optimum parameters

Question

Vikas Meena 2024-3-30

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https://ww2.mathworks.cn/matlabcentral/answers/2100796-minimize-the-sum-of-squared-errors-between-the-experimental-and-predicted-data-in-order-to-estimate

编辑： Sam Chak 2024-4-2，7:31

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In my research work, I want to do Vehicle survival fraction, survival rates were calculated using the log-logistic survival function, in equation two unknown parameters a, b is to obtain by minimize the sum of squared errors between the experimental and modeled.

equation of the model is:

S = [1 + (t/a)^b]^(-1)

age of the vehicle t = [0;1;2;3;4;5;6;7;8;9;10;11;12;13;14;15;16;17;18;19;20];

registered vehicles of respective age t, N = [6801342;6364669;6104616;5849372;5426898;4969076;4549439;4117610;3714272;3324896;2980512;2652830;2320935;2041282;1818527;1594733;1335572;1053197;800212;566590;376620];

experimental value u_exp = [406183941.2;270789294.1;812367882.4;541578588.2;406183941.2;1353946471;406183941.2;135394647.1;135394647.1;135394647.1;676973235.3;270789294.1;406183941.2;0;270789294.1;406183941.2;0;135394647.1;0;0;135394647.1];

u_mod = @(P) ((1+(t./P(1)).^P(2)).^(-1)).*N;

modeled value = S*N

and I want to calculate the parameters “a” and “b” by minimizing the sum of squared errors between “n exp” and “n model”.

Someone here can help me please?

Thank you already for your help!

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Vikas Meena 2024-4-1，7:47

hi @Sam Chak

here is the plot of experimental data

z = [0;1;2;3;4;5;6;7;8;9;10;11;12;13;14;15;16;17;18;19;20];

u_exp = [4061839.412;2707892.941;8123678.824;5415785.882;4061839.412;13539464.71;4061839.412;1353946.471;1353946.471;1353946.471;6769732.353;2707892.941;4061839.412;0;2707892.941;4061839.412;0;1353946.471;0;0;1353946.471];

hold on

plot(z,u_exp,'o')

hold off

grid on

Sam Chak 2024-4-1，8:29

在 MATLAB Online 中打开

Hi @Vikas Meena

Below, I have overlaid the Log-Logistic Distribution (LLD) with your normalized experimental data. It is worth noting that it is possible to find a unique LLD that corresponds to each non-zero data point. Given that there are 4 zeros out of the total 21 data points, it implies that you can determine 17 or fewer unique LLDs. I would appreciate it if you could clarify whether this is your desired outcome from a purely mathematical perspective.

t   = linspace(0, 20, 2001);
a   = 2.5*[1:8];                    % alpha: 8 intersection points
b   = 2.^[1/2 1 3/2 2 5/2 3 3.5];   % beta : 7 curve characteristics
for i = 1:numel(a)
    for j = 1:numel(b)
        LLD = 1./(1 + 1./((t/a(i)).^b(j)));
        plot(t, LLD), hold on
    end
end
z     = [0;1;2;3;4;5;6;7;8;9;10;11;12;13;14;15;16;17;18;19;20]; 
u_exp = [4061839.412;2707892.941;8123678.824;5415785.882;4061839.412;13539464.71;4061839.412;1353946.471;1353946.471;1353946.471;6769732.353;2707892.941;4061839.412;0;2707892.941;4061839.412;0;1353946.471;0;0;1353946.471];
stem(z, u_exp/max(u_exp), 'k', 'linewidth', 1.5)
hold off, grid on
xlabel('t')
ylabel('LLD')
title('Overlay Plots')

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Answer 1

the cyclist 2024-3-30

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在 MATLAB Online 中打开

If you have the Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox, you can use fitnlm to fit this function.

Unless I'm making a mistake in my thinking, though, that is not a very good function to fit your data. As t approaches zero, S approaches 1, regardless of the parameters.

rng default

% Define the data to be fit

t = [0; 1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6; 7; 8; 9; 10; 11; 12; 13; 14; 15; 16; 17; 18; 19; 20];

N = [3; 2; 6; 4; 3; 10; 3; 1; 1; 1; 5; 2; 3; 0; 2; 3; 0; 1; 0; 0; 1];

% Tabulate the data

tbl = table(t,N);

% Define function that will be used to fit data

% (p is a vector of fitting parameters)

S = @(p,t) (1 + (t./p(1)).^p(2)).^(-1);

% Fit the model

beta0 = [5 5]; % Initial parameter guess

mdl = fitnlm(tbl,S,beta0)

mdl =

Nonlinear regression model: N ~ (1 + (t/p1)^p2)^( - 1) Estimated Coefficients: Estimate SE tStat pValue ________ ______ _______ _________ p1 17.359 5.2563 3.3024 0.0037447 p2 31.338 257.96 0.12148 0.90459 Number of observations: 21, Error degrees of freedom: 19 Root Mean Squared Error: 2.88 R-Squared: -0.364, Adjusted R-Squared -0.436 F-statistic vs. zero model: 4.96, p-value = 0.0185

% Calculate the model values at the empirical x

y_predicted = predict(mdl,t);

% Plot the data and fit

figure

plot(t,N,'*',t,y_predicted,'g');

legend('data','fit')

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the cyclist 2024-3-30

This solution was written prior to a significant re-write of the question, and is no longer applicable as a specific solution to the question.

I'm only leaving it here for OP's later reference, if they wish.

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Answer 2

Sam Chak 2024-4-2，6:56

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编辑：Sam Chak 2024-4-2，7:31

在 MATLAB Online 中打开

Hi @Vikas Meena

Taking into account the information provided, this solution is likely the most suitable option I can propose.

%% Experimental Data

t = [0:20];

uex = [4061839.412; 2707892.941; 8123678.824; 5415785.882; 4061839.412; 13539464.71; 4061839.412; 1353946.471; 1353946.471; 1353946.471; 6769732.353; 2707892.941; 4061839.412; 0; 2707892.941; 4061839.412; 0; 1353946.471; 0; 0; 1353946.471]';

y = uex/max(uex); % normalized data

%% Determine the parameters

idx1= find(y == 1);

idx2= find(y == 0);

tt = t; tt(1) = 1e-6; % data processing in t

yy = y; yy(idx1) = 1 - 1e-6; yy(idx2) = 1e-6; % data processing in y

b = 3; % fix beta

a = ((- (tt.^b).*(yy - 1)).^(1/b))./(yy.^(1/b)); % find alpha

%% Log-Logistic Distribution model

LLD = 1./(1 + 1./((tt./a).^b));

%% Sum of squared errors

Err = y - LLD;

sse = sum(Err.^2)

sse = 5.0000e-12

%% Plot result

stem(t , y), axis([-1 21 0 1.1]), hold on

stem(tt, LLD, 'markersize', 12), hold off, grid on

xlabel('t')

legend('Normalized Data', 'Prediction', 'fontsize', 12)

title('Prediction by Log-Logistic Distribution Model')

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