Compute confidence interval on model predictions

Justine

2026 8 12

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Hello,

I fitted three model parameters to data, and I was able to retrieve the optimization results and get the confidence intervals on both parameters and model predictions, as explained in PredictionConfidenceInterval - Object containing confidence interval results for model predictions - MATLAB

I also performed simulations for other individuals using the same model and the same fitted model parameters, but with some parameters (not the fitted ones) defined individually. I ran a groupsimualtion for this, and I would like to compute the uncertainty on these simulations, based on the uncertainty of the fitted parameter, but I was unsuccessful so far...

Is there a way to compute the confidence interval on model predictions, using different simulation settings (i.e. individual or variant) than for model fitting?

Thanks in advance!

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Torsten about 4 hours 前

编辑：Torsten about 3 hours 前

I also performed simulations for other individuals using the same model and the same fitted model parameters, but with some parameters (not the fitted ones) defined individually.

So in the original model, the extra parameters were absent or were they set to fixed (mean) values ?

Can you explain more about the type of model in question ?

You also read the below page ? I doesn't answer your question about extra parameters, but is quite helpful to understand and interprete the fitting results.

https://uk.mathworks.com/help/curvefit/confidence-and-prediction-bounds.html

Justine about 2 hours 前

Thank you for your answer!

The model was built in Simbiology, and it is a PBPK model. The extra parameters existed in the original model, but they were fixed to different values indeed. Now I am using the exact same model structure, kept the fitted parameter from the original model, but using slightly different value of physiological parameters to model several individuals.

I hope this clarifies a bit the context.

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