How to interpret cross correlation coefficients?

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Nikola Milutinovic
Nikola Milutinovic 2016-11-26
I'm studying the relationship between oil prices and Canadian provincial budget deficits. This is sample code is a bivariate cross-correlation with 3 lags/leads.
Here's the code and resulting coefficients: [ALTAX,Lags,bounds] = crosscorr(OIL,HPALTA, 3, 2);
0.343328793090246 0.256256377509124 0.114213812550601 -0.0789975553890296 -0.169654649071188 -0.148174239833074 -0.143485067926882
OIL is an index of oil prices, and HPALTA is Alberta's deficit-GDP ratio.
I'm unsure how to interpret the coefficients. Does this mean Oil positively leads budget surpluses? As in high oil prices in t-1 t-2 and t-3 lead to surpluses in t-0? And high future oil prices indicate past deficits?
Sorry I'm quite new to this. Thank you!

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