Fit a repeated pattern
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I have the following time series that i want to model.

The graph shows several 'events' that have a repeated pattern (i consider as an 'event' the data points between the long straight lines). I can fit each event (the parts between the straight lines) separately with a 3rd or 4th level polynomial but what i want is to create a continuous model to fit several plots like this one automatically.All events should have the same shape (the reason why they do not look exactly the same is because of some noise is added). Does anyone know how to create a model for this whole plot if i know the shape of one of those events? I have included the dataset in text files.
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Michiele Ogbagabir
2018-6-27
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If you know the shape of one of those events, you may try implementing an iterative solution by wrapping around the x-interval of one such event. Lets say one such pattern spans an x-interval (0, 200). In this case you can modify your single-event-polynomial by passing it x % 200 instead of x and turn it into a model for this whole plot. But this would require prior knowledge of the pattern's intervals which may not be possible depending on what your application is.
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