How to forecast a multi step ahead time series?

5 次查看(过去 30 天)
Hello all,
I'm doing a new project on MATLAB. I got stuck in a step where I have to forecast a multi step ahead time series.
Any code snippet will be very helpful for me to proceed. Kindly help.
Problem :
I have a time series data of 578 points and I need to forcast next 144 points which are unknown to me. These 144 points will be multi step ahead forecast points.
The problem can be seen as I have 80 percent data with me and rest unknown 20 percent I need to predict. (Any relevant approach is great for me)
Thanks in advanced.

回答(1 个)

Jaynik
Jaynik 2024-7-24
Hi Atreyee,
The predict function from the "System Identificatoin Toolbox" can be used to perform multi-step ahead forecasting. This function computes the K-step-ahead output of an identified model using measured input-output data. Here is a sample code for the same:
% Assuming 'data' is your time series data
% Estimate an AR model from the data
Mdl = ar(data, 2);
% Perform the K-step ahead prediction
K = 144;
yp = predict(Mdl, data, K);
% Plotting the original data and the prediction
figure
plot(data.OutputData)
hold on
plot(yp.OutputData, 'r')
hold off
Here, ar is a model used to estimate an autoregressive model of order 2 from the data. The choice of model depends on the characteristics of your data and the specific requirements of your forecasting task. It is always a good idea to try multiple models and choose the one that gives the best performance on your validation data.
Refer to the following documentation to learn more about these functions:
Here are some examples for time-series prediction which might be useful:
Hope this helps!

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