Variable (wavelength or feature) selection techniques have become a critical step for the analysis of datasets with high number of variables and relatively few samples. In this study, a novel variable selection strategy, variable combination population analysis (VCPA), was proposed. This strategy consists of two crucial procedures. First, the exponentially decreasing function (EDF), which is a simple and effective principle ’survival of the fittest’ of Darwin’s natural evolution theory, is employed to determine the number of variables to keep and continuously shrink the variable space. Second, in each EDF run, binary matrix sampling (BMS) strategy that gives each variable the same chance to be selected and generates different variable combinations, is used to produce a population of subsets to construct a population of sub-models. Then, model population analysis (MPA) is employed to find the variable subsets with lower root mean squares error of cross validation (RMSECV). The frequency of each variable appearing in the best 10% sub-models is computed. The higher the frequency is, the more important the variable is. The performance of the proposed procedure was investigated using three real NIR datasets The results indicate that VCPA is a good variable selection strategy when compared with four high performing variable selection methods: genetic algorithm-partial least squares (GA-PLS), Monte Carlo uninformative variable elimination by PLS (MC-UVE-PLS), competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS) and iteratively retains informative variables (IRIV).